That ought to be the headlines in Boston right now about the Red Sox potential collapse in the A.L. East. The New York Yankees are hot and are loaded. The Red Sox are loaded, but their arms look tired and they haven't gotten the clutch hitting in the past few weeks we're accumstomed to seeing. And don't forget that Manny Rameriz has missed action with a nagging oblique injury through this stretch.
Here is what makes the Red Sox collapse particularly insignificant - they are still going to the playoffs. The Tigers and Mariners have faded from the wildcard race, so the loser of the Yankee/Red Sox race isn't much of a loser.
But what about home field advantage, you ask? In baseball, it doesn't seem to matter. Around 54% of home teams win in the baseball playoffs, which is especially surprising because baseball gives the home team a strategic advantage - the last at-bat. For whatever reason, it doesn't matter in baseball. If the Red Sox end up traveling to Anaheim or Cleveland, it doesn't hurt their chances much at all.
What about momentum? Look at the 2006 Cardinals and then tell me whether late season momentum matters.
The collapse that ought to be getting more attention involves another New York team - the Mets. The Phillies have overcome injuries and a miserable pitching staff to come within 1.5 games of the Mets. What makes the Mets' fall so much for fascinating than the Red Sox is that the Mets will likely be out of the playoffs if they cannot right their ship. The Padres and Diamondbacks are battling in the N.L. West and each team has a better record than the Mets. If the Mets end up blowing a lead that was 7 games just a couple of weeks ago, they will be sitting beside the Pirates, Royals and Devil Rays - outside the playoffs.
I realize the Yankee/Red Sox rivalry trumps all others in baseball and that the American League is far superior right now to the National League, but there is really little reason to care about whether the Yankees catch the Sox. The Mets/Phillies storyline is the best one in these dog days of September as it is truly win or go home. For these two teams, the playoffs have already begun.
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it's getting pretty hairy out here in the desert. it's been hard to explain all year how in the world this team has stayed at or near the top of the nl west standings. they are very young and very fun to watch, but they have been outscored by ~40 runs and the team batting avg is hovering around .250. we have a great bullpen and a good rotation. but we have a 3 game series against the dodgers this weekend and we finish the season with a 3 game series at coors field. both teams have had success against us, and with the way the phillies and padres are playing we may be fighting the mets for the wild card. it's fun when the games matter in september, though.
Its no surprise that the Mets collapse, though the more interesting, receives much less attention. Here in NY, if the Mets were to win the World Series after an 0-3 start, and with a surprise appearance by Dwight Gooden, the sports page of every major newspaper here would still lead off the next day with Derek Jeter's golf score, or what A-Rod's wife was wearing at the last home game.
There was a great article on BaseballProspectus.com the other day that really cheered me up about the recent inefficiency of the BoSox. The guy laid out basically your argument (The Sox are in, no need to panic), but he went further saying that Francona was actually playing it brilliantly by allowing his team to be fully rested headed into the post-season-- sort of an NHL mentality to the playoffs. That blown save by Gagne the other night? Well, that was just Tito trying to figure out if he was going to be able to rely on the big guy for big outs when it mattered. I finished reading that and started to feel good about the Red Sox again, even though I thought the article was giving Tito a little too much credit. That night Papelbon gives up a grand slam against the Jays in a Save situation. Took all the wind out of my sails. I'm fairly confident that the Sox are going to limp into the playoffs and lose in the first round.
Let's be honest - the Sox & Yankees are more interesting than most teams. I get that. What I don't get is the over-reaction to the Yankees catching them. There are smart baseball people out there treating this like something historical - I don't get why.
The Diamondbacks are hard to figure. They sure did give the Braves fits this year with their no-name line-up.
I would like to see a surprise appearance by Dwight Gooden. That sentence is so good I ought to delete it just because you're showing me up.
In response to why people are treating the Yankees season as an historical moment...when was the last time they had such a terrible start? They were throwing so much money around at the beginning of the season...and for nothing. Unlike Yankee teams of the past few years, they have actually been relying on newcomers more than veterans a little more, such as Joba, and that is a exciting for the Yankees, who don't like gambling on uncertain prospects.
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